Nuclear Brinkmanship and Crisis Stability in South Asia: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of the April 2025 India–Pakistan Conflict

Hakan Çora

doi:10.35365/eass.26.1.07

Yazarlar

Hakan Çora Onbeş Kasım Kıbrıs Üniversitesi https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5780-549X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35365/eass.26.1.07

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Nükleer caydırıcılık, Hindistan-Pakistan çatışması, Kriz istikrarı, Sagan-Waltz

Özet

Nisan 2025’te Hindistan ile Pakistan arasında yaşanan kriz, iki nükleer silaha sahip devlet arasındaki ilişkilerde 2019 Pulwama–Balakot geriliminden bu yana görülen en ciddi tırmanma olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Bu çalışma, söz konusu krizi askeri, siyasi, ekonomik ve insani boyutlarıyla çok katmanlı bir analiz çerçevesinde incelemekte ve nükleer caydırıcılık literatüründeki iki temel yaklaşımı—Kenneth Waltz’ın caydırıcılık iyimserliği ile Scott Sagan’ın örgütsel hata ve kurumsal kırılganlık modeli—karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendirmektedir. Araştırma, yapılandırılmış nitel vaka analizi ve süreç izleme yöntemine dayanmaktadır. Resmî devlet açıklamaları, uluslararası medya raporları, Birleşmiş Milletler durum değerlendirmeleri, savunma analiz platformları ve ekonomik piyasa verileri sistematik biçimde toplanmış; tematik kodlama ve analitik matris yöntemiyle değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, nükleer caydırıcılığın geniş çaplı konvansiyonel savaşı engellediğini; ancak istihbarat hataları, örgütsel önyargılar, militan aktörlerin provokatif eylemleri, kısa füze uçuş süreleri ve hızlı seferberlik döngüleri nedeniyle krizin belirgin bir istikrarsızlık potansiyeli taşıdığını göstermektedir. Ekonomik etkiler asimetrik biçimde ortaya çıkmış; özellikle Pakistan’ın kırılgan mali yapısı döviz dalgalanmaları ve yatırım çıkışları nedeniyle daha ağır etkilenmiştir. İnsani açıdan ise Cemmu–Keşmir bölgesinde yerinden edilme, altyapı tahribatı ve insani erişim kısıtları yaşanmış; bu durum uzun vadeli toplumsal kırılganlıkları derinleştirmiştir. Sonuç olarak, çalışma Güney Asya’da nükleer caydırıcılığın stratejik düzeyde savaşı önleyici bir işlev görse de operasyonel ve alt-konvansiyonel düzeylerde kırılgan ve sürdürülebilirliği sınırlı bir istikrar ürettiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

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